As your TBN goes down TAN (Total Acid Number) goes up. It is an indication that your additives are nearing its depletion, once the additives are depleted then it will cause much problems as varnish, sludge, residues, and makes your oil easy to oxidize. Hence, you need to change your oil. Remember that engine oil are the most dirtiest oil with lots of contamination ranging from metals, dust, blow-by, moisture just to name a few. Once oil is contaminated then oxidation results.
As a precaution, TAN should be less than 2.
My Warm Regards,
Rolly Angeles
www.rsareliability.com