Dear motorist,
I have a question for you: Why there are limits and alarms in medicine? Why pay attention to limits and alarms when it comes to cholesterol, or blood pressure, or counts of white and red blood cells, or vitamins' deficiencies, etc., and why we bother to take medications based on these limits and alarms? Or shouldn’t we be concerned only with a speed of variations? The same could be said for lube oils, because they are considered the blood of equipment. I tend to pay attention to limits and alarms and react accordingly (and I would suggest you do the same). For example, when viscosity or acid number reach alarm limits, I wouldn’t resort to medication (additives) to restore oils health; I would change it, instead. However, in cases when moisture and particle count are reaching high limits, I would use medications (demoisturizing and filtration) to bring back health to my lube.
Nevertheless, the rate of change is important, but not to directly access service life of oil, and to make decision of changing it or not. Instead, I would use such data to assess the system’s (equipment) reliability.